There is a lot of speculation about recent stories of game fixing and point shaving the United States and abroad. The scary aspect is that we assume it comes down to just greed. There are other factors to consider.
Par joeduffy
Microsoft Word
Publiée le 15 Avr. 2009
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Lectures: 5
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University of Pennsylvania, not to be confused with my alma mater California University
of Pennsylvania, economist Justin Wolfers wrote a paper in which he used “forensic
economics” to find alleged patterns of cheating in college basketball.
Wolfers asserts that point shaving is occurring in about five percent of games that...
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University of Pennsylvania, not to be confused with my alma mater California University of Pennsylvania, economist Justin Wolfers wrote a paper in which he used “forensic economics” to find alleged patterns of cheating in college basketball. Wolfers asserts that point shaving is occurring in about five percent of games that involve large pointspreads. If only the good professor read any of our sports gaming articles such as “It is Good to Pick Bad” he wouldn’t have come up with such preposterous conclusions, knowing there is a very logical reason large underdogs cover more than 50 percent of the time. To the surprise of no sharp sports handicapper, Mr. Wolfers found that big underdogs cover a disproportionate percentage of close spread outcomes. Wolfers’ statistical “big dog” is a team getting 12 or more points. As the NY Times puts it “There is a strange dearth of games in which 12-point favorites win by, say, 13 or 16 points. And there are a lot of games tha
Moins
Par joeduffy
Microsoft Word
Publiée le 15 Avr. 2009
Pages: 2
Lectures: 5
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Oh true we have had more than our share of success with computer generated time-tested
and statistically significantly systems, which have proven to be their absolute best in the
NBA for beating the sportsbooks.
Also the NBA is second to college hoops when it comes
to our “sharps versus squares” games.
That means most of the...
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Oh true we have had more than our share of success with computer generated time-tested and statistically significantly systems, which have proven to be their absolute best in the NBA for beating the sportsbooks. Also the NBA is second to college hoops when it comes to our “sharps versus squares” games. That means most of the sharp money is going one way and most of the sucker money the other way according to our offshore, Vegas and “outlaw” contacts. We go with the sharp money. But there is no substitute for great analytical handicapping in any sport including the NBA. There are some very common dynamics that apply often and mastering the conceptions and misconceptions is imperative. Very high on that list at GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders. com, is the NBA scheduling dynamics. I know of some guys who almost religiously bet with a more rested team. This is especially so if one team is playing their third game in four nights, fourth in five or fifth in
Moins
Par joeduffy
Microsoft Word
Publiée le 15 Avr. 2009
Pages: 2
Lectures: 7
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As we approach the final week of the college basketball regular season, which includes the
major conference tournaments, it’s time to remind you of one of the great pitfalls gamblers
make.
That is to bet on the team that needs a win more.
Combine this with the public’s infatuation with betting on the better team, some of the...
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As we approach the final week of the college basketball regular season, which includes the major conference tournaments, it’s time to remind you of one of the great pitfalls gamblers make. That is to bet on the team that needs a win more. Combine this with the public’s infatuation with betting on the better team, some of the best investment opportunities are forthcoming in the early days of March Madness betting simply by fading bubble teams. Why are they great go-against teams for the sharp player? The previously stated motive is one of them. The linesmakers know that gamblers accept as true that the bubble teams will be more motivated. Thus, bettors are ready and willing to lay extra points. But the fact is, if a team is on “the bubble” they haven’t been victorious often enough in such “must win” games. The squads that excel in pressure games have their NCAA at-large bid locked up by this time of the year. The most opportune situation is when a bubble team
Moins
Par joeduffy
Microsoft Word
Publiée le 15 Avr. 2009
Pages: 1
Lectures: 6
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As sports bettors saw in 2008about to see Tom Brady is the most valuable player to the
New England Patriots defense.
Yes Matt Cassel played well, but no matter how you spin it,
the Pats went from the first 16-0 team in history to not even making the playoffs without
Brady.
Ben Roethlisberger even if the pure numbers do not seem...
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As sports bettors saw in 2008about to see Tom Brady is the most valuable player to the New England Patriots defense. Yes Matt Cassel played well, but no matter how you spin it, the Pats went from the first 16-0 team in history to not even making the playoffs without Brady. Ben Roethlisberger even if the pure numbers do not seem to jibe with that statement. I should clarify, that is pure numbers to the uneducated eye. If Peyton Manning got injured, chances are the Colts would get more conservative and have better defensive stats. Dan Marino and Barry Sanders were the two most overrated players in the NFL during my lifetime. All the above statements are true, have or had serious handicapping ramifications, and are all related. There is no question that the best defense in football is a ball control, effective and efficient offense. We love quarterbacks like Brady, McNair and Ben Roethlisberger because they run an offense like water torture. They slowly but
Moins
Par joeduffy
Microsoft Word
Publiée le 15 Avr. 2009
Pages: 1
Lectures: 3
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Steve Presson is a very successful entrepreneur who now sells luxury real estate for
Corcoran Group, a high end realtor in Palm Beach, Florida. Steve pays minimal attention
to any sport but one: pro football. A fantasy football guru, Steve is approaching legendary
status in NFL “Last Man Standing” or “Survivor” pools....
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Steve Presson is a very successful entrepreneur who now sells luxury real estate for Corcoran Group, a high end realtor in Palm Beach, Florida. Steve pays minimal attention to any sport but one: pro football. A fantasy football guru, Steve is approaching legendary status in NFL “Last Man Standing” or “Survivor” pools. They go by some other names, but essentially participants pick one game a week and if they lose, they are out. The winners advance until there is one man (or women) standing. The reason Steve doesn’t bet on football more often or play higher stakes is that his keepit-simple philosophy only presents limited opportunities, perhaps 10-15 times per year. His strategy? It’s going against second string, incompetent quarterbacks. Our only minor disagreement is that we believe successful teams are built around quality skilled position players with quarterbacks topping the list, but Presson believes the oddsmakers can’t compensate enough when an injury forces
Moins
Par joeduffy
Microsoft Word
Publiée le 14 Avr. 2009
Pages: 2
Lectures: 3
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A few years back we wrote an article on the importance of evaluating how teams hit lefthanded and right-handed pitchers.
In summary, we surmised it was important, yet keeping
in perspective, we demonstrated how the numbers can be greatly affected by random
chance.
Hence we warned about becoming too dependant on deceptive...
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A few years back we wrote an article on the importance of evaluating how teams hit lefthanded and right-handed pitchers. In summary, we surmised it was important, yet keeping in perspective, we demonstrated how the numbers can be greatly affected by random chance. Hence we warned about becoming too dependant on deceptive statistics that are so often fools gold. We have very similar thoughts about comparing ballpark statistics for baseball handicappers. There are some stadiums that could be classified as “pitchers’ ballparks” while others could reasonably be labeled more friendly to hitters. Yet again, we have to give props to the four-letter evil empire ESPN. In their fantasy baseball section, they have a straight-forward “Park Factor” that compares that rate of stats at home versus the rate of stats on the road. A rate that is higher than 1. 000 favors the hitter, with lower than 1. 000 favoring the pitcher. Still, statistical reliability would assume the
Moins
Par joeduffy
Microsoft Word
Publiée le 14 Avr. 2009
Pages: 2
Lectures: 7
Téléchargements: 0
I so often hear chic sports fans and handicappers talk about games being won “at the point of attack”.
I know of one handicapper who constantly screams he doesn’t care about the skilled
position players; he loves the “lunch pail” guys.
If it were only true handicapping would be so easy because all we’d do is bet injury...
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I so often hear chic sports fans and handicappers talk about games being won “at the point of attack”. I know of one handicapper who constantly screams he doesn’t care about the skilled position players; he loves the “lunch pail” guys. If it were only true handicapping would be so easy because all we’d do is bet injury information line moves. When was the last time you saw an injury to an offensive lineman take a game off the board, circled or have the line significantly adjusted? Still thinking of one, eh? On the other hand, when was the last time a major change in regards to a 1,500 yard rusher did not have a huge effect on a line? So if the “lunch pail” banalities were true, any time a line is adjusted to compensate for a quarterback’s injury all we’d have to do is bet with the effected team because a line move of major proportions would be unjustified. Conversely any time an All-SEC offensive lineman was out, we would bet the other team because the linesmakers did no
Moins
Par joeduffy
Microsoft Word
Publiée le 14 Avr. 2009
Pages: 2
Lectures: 4
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It’s a conundrum that many ATS fortune hunters face. Sports gambling can be a great
leisurely activity for all, but for the well-versed sports prophesier, it can be a lucrative
enterprise.
There are sharpies and wise guys who do make a lot of money sports gambling, but it takes
the ability to both line-shop and forebode the...
Plus
It’s a conundrum that many ATS fortune hunters face. Sports gambling can be a great leisurely activity for all, but for the well-versed sports prophesier, it can be a lucrative enterprise. There are sharpies and wise guys who do make a lot of money sports gambling, but it takes the ability to both line-shop and forebode the outcome of games to make it profitable. While my clients’ line-tracking skills are their own, the most important doomsday machine that an odds protégée can harbor is knowing the right sides and totals to monitor. Go to any search engine and enter “Godstips” or “OffshoreInsiders. com” you will find endless articles on the intel needed for advantageous prophecy, but as the musician was told on the way to Carnegie Hall, the only solution is practice, practice, and practice. Let there be no doubt that there are a limited number of qualified professional handicapping experts. Unfortunately the consumer is forced to ferret through the much more com
Moins
Par joeduffy
Microsoft Word
Publiée le 14 Avr. 2009
Pages: 2
Lectures: 3
Téléchargements: 0
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